November 15th 2024
Not sure if it is due to the consistent drop in interest rates or the weather, or if it is a combination of both, but whatever the reason, the market is continuing strong long after we would normally see a downturn. And that is true both for average sale price and also for unit sales.
The October sales figures are in, and across the Region the average sale price came in at $693,744. That is not only up $17,670 from September, it is up from July and August as well.
Normally, all things being equal, the market softens over the second half of the year, both in unit sales and also in price. In 2023 for example October averages came in at $673,383, down a miniscule $291 from September, but a total of $44,015 or 6.14% from July. And in 2022, October’s average sale price of $691,041 was down $4,164 from September and down $32,004 or 4.40% from July. Prices typically don’t go up in the fall, but this year October did. To put this in perspective, October’s average sale price of $693,744 puts us ahead of October 2023’s $673,383 by $20,361 or 3.01% and even comparing it to the heady days of 2022, we are actually up from October 2022 by $2,703. That’s not bad. Of course, we’ve got a long way to go from the lofty heights of February 2022 when we saw prices peak at $863,057. But we are moving in the right direction. And in the late fall as well.
I should point out that the results are not uniform across the board. Of the 10 municipalities we track across Niagara, 7 are up and 3 are down. But the largest population municipalities with the greatest number of sales are all up. The trend is definitely there.
But the other remarkable thing is how strong relatively speaking, the unit sales are performing. Normally by October the unit sales have fallen off significantly. Not so this year.
As you can see from the chart above, October registered 563 units sold for the month. That’s up 51 units or 9.96% from September. In fact, you’d have to go back all the way to June to find a stronger month, and that only beat October by 6 units.
Compared to October 2023 which came in at 388, we’re up 175 sales, and even compared to October 2022 we’re up 134 sales. Very unusual for the market to remain strong into October and very unusual to see this large an uptick in activity this late in the year.
We have sensed a strong interest in real estate all year long. People are watching the market. They are anxious to re-engage. For most people it’s a matter of timing. When are prices going to again rise? When are interest rates going to fall to acceptable and even attractive levels? People have been sidelined but they have been watching. It would appear that people are starting to jump back in. Unusual for the fall and winter seasons. If this trend continues, we are in store for an amazing spring.