February 15th 2024
In writing this report I have essentially two tasks. The one relatively easy. The other not so. First, we want to look at the numbers. Compare them. Analyze them. See if there are any trends. That’s relatively easy. As long as the data is accurate and consistent, those numbers will paint us a picture. They will tell us what has been and is happening. The other part is from those numbers make a prediction as to where the market is going. And that’s a little tougher. Read economists reports on the current market conditions and they can tell you exactly where we are and how we got here. But looking ahead, they are diverse in opinion and generally pretty contradictory. Let’s start with the current numbers. January 2024. And the numbers that got us here. The average sale price across the Region came in at $650,178. That’s up slightly, $6,111 or 0.95% from December. About 1%. That’s marginal. But, hey, if we saw a 1% increase every month, we’d have a pretty robust market. But, to put things in perspective, that $650,178 is down $10,843 or 1.64% from November. And backing off a bit further, it’s up $22,617 from the $627,561 or 3.60% recorded in January 2023, exactly one year ago. But now before you draw any conclusions, if you move exactly one month ahead, to February 2023 the market came in at an average of $662,773 or 1.94% higher than we are today. See what I mean?
*Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members inputted MLS sales.
Over the year 2023, the average sale price across the Region varied from a low of $627,561 to a high of $736,491. That’s a spread of $108,930 or 17.36%. Impressive. The problem is that it didn’t rise uniformly. While it’s true the low was recorded in January 2023, the high came in in June. By year end, the market had given back $92,428 or 12.55%. What we actually saw happening was a pretty steady rise over the first 6 months of 2023, from $627,561 in January to $736,491 in June and then a pretty steady decline in values over the last 6 months of the year from $717,398 in July right down to $644,067 in December. If the market was demonstrating anything it was the fact that things were relatively unstable. Yes, the market is typically stronger in the spring than in the fall, but that is generally reflective more of drops in unit sales than it is in price. One interesting thing of note is that, as we saw, prices in 2023 rose steadily over the first 6 months, but January actually lost ground from December, $28,776 in fact or 4.38%. The prices took off in February. This year however, January didn’t lose ground over year end. It gained. I realize it’s only one month, and one month does not a trend make, but it’s nice to see a stronger start. And speaking of stronger starts, we see that some momentous gains were recorded in unit sales this year. In January the Niagara Region registered 371 residential units sold.
*Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members inputted MLS sales.
That compares favourably to the 268 units tallied up in December. Of course, December with Christmas and the related holidays, tends to shut the market down early. But, still that 371 units sold compares very favourably to the 312 units sold on year ago, January 2023. Even more impressive, however, is how well January 2024 performed compared with September, October, November and December 2023 which saw sales of 393, 388, 374 and 268 respectively. Indeed, January has started strong. But where does that leave us? What can we expect over the course of 2024? And that’s the tricky part. Personally, I am very optimistic looking ahead. Partly because of the price and unit sales we’ve just discussed. Partly because interest rates are holding steady and are forecast to come down over the next 6 months and partly because I sense a pent-up desire in the marketplace from people wanting to once again get back in the game. I think it will be an interesting and, in many ways, rewarding year ahead.